A brief overview of the WTC points table

India’s losses have turned the World Test Championship points table on its head. Before playing New Zealand, it seemed like they had a good chance of reaching the final. After India’s series win against England earlier in the year, we said that the Border-Gavaskar Trophy is the most important series in this cycle.

It probably still is, but now everything else has changed. There is a scenario in which the BGT ends in a draw, yet neither India nor Australia qualify for the WTC final—and it is realistic.

India are still on top of the points table. They still have a very winnable—or so it seemed—home Test in Mumbai. Then they head to Australia for five Tests without Mohammed Shami, Hardik Pandya (though he last played a Test in 2018) and Kuldeep Yadav, on the back of this home series loss.

Let’s say they win the Test against the Kiwis and manage two wins at the MCG and the SCG. In that case, their percentage points would be 58.77%.

Another win gets them to 64.04%, which should put them in a great position to be in the top two, since Australia also lose points in that case. But winning three Tests in Australia without their second-best quick and batters in middling form would be a tough task. It’s not impossible, but not quite ideal either.

An incredibly unlikely scenario would be if India win 4-1 in Australia but lose at Wankhede. They would still have 64.04% then, but if New Zealand and South Africa go on to win all their games they would reach the final, and India would just miss out. In such a case, even if Australia win 2-0 in Sri Lanka, they will still not have enough points. If the Kiwis make the final by smashing India, I think they should be given the trophy in perpetuity. 

That brings us to Australia. They play another seven Tests—five at home versus India and two in Sri Lanka. If they draw 2-2 against India and 1-1 in Sri Lanka, their PCT would be just above 57—which is not exactly in the safe zone. If they win 3-2 against India, that would mean they have 60.53 percentage points, while India would drop below 60%. But if after that, they lose both Tests in Sri Lanka, their mark then goes below India’s 58.77.

If Australia win 4-1 versus India and both Tests in Sri Lanka, they would have over 70 percentage points.

Since we did the piece in March, Sri Lanka won 2-0 in Bangladesh, secured a Test win in England, and went 2-0 vs New Zealand at home. They are currently on 55.56% points, with their upcoming fixtures being two Tests in South Africa and two at home versus Australia. If they win a Test in each series, they drop to 53.85%—which would not be enough to make the final. Winning another game takes them to 61.54%.

Since they only play South Africa and Australia now, winning against them also changes the dynamics for those teams. Can they win a Test in South Africa? They do have pace bowling talent and in-form batters, whereas South Africa’s batting lacks stability—notwithstanding their recent innings versus Bangladesh.

Outbowling the South African pace attack of Kagiso Rabada, Marco Jansen, Anrich Nortje and Nandre Burger at home is a very difficult task. Perhaps their best chance to win would be on a low-scoring surface that allows their quicks to make the most of the conditions and roll South Africa out cheaply. 

It seemed like South Africa might not make the WTC final when we last discussed the table. But New Zealand winning two Tests in India, and then South Africa winning two in Bangladesh has shaken up the standings quite a bit. Winning all four remaining games—an achievable feat—would take them to 69.44% points.

Let’s assume they end up losing a Test. In that case, they would be at 61.11%. But if New Zealand win all four Tests from here, and Australia beat India 3-2 and Sri Lanka 2-0, South Africa do not qualify. 

Hardly anyone gave New Zealand a chance to win in India after losing to Sri Lanka, rightfully. But these two wins have shook up the World (Test Championship). They are currently at 50%, and if the Kiwis lose to India but win all three against England at home, they get to 57.14%. That is probably not enough. Another win takes them to 64.29%.

But even if New Zealand win all four games, there is a scenario where they may narrowly fall short. If Australia win 4-1 against India and draw 1-1 in Sri Lanka, and South Africa also go four out of four, New Zealand will not make their second Test championship final.

When we calculated the best-case scenarios for the rest of the teams—England, Pakistan, Bangladesh and West Indies, we observed that only Pakistan crossed 50% points (52.4%) even if they win all of their remaining fixtures. For all practical purposes, it would be fair to say that they are pretty much out of the reckoning, unless things like over rate penalties and outlier results massively affect things. 

If the BGT is a 2-2 draw, Sri Lanka defeat Australia 2-0, New Zealand lose in Mumbai but win three out of three against England, and South Africa lose only one Test—to Sri Lanka at home—Sri Lanka and South Africa will then qualify for the World Test Championship final at Lord’s next June.

Each of these results could very well happen. What does it tell us about the absurdity of the WTC if South Africa make the final after not sending their first-choice team to New Zealand? This will be the funniest, and therefore the best result. 

Realistically, South Africa and Australia probably have the best routes. Of course, India would be in the conversation, but they have to win the Test in Mumbai and the series Down Under or hope other results go their way. New Zealand and Sri Lanka are still in the mix. 

The World Test Championship remains a mess in terms of who plays whom and when. But India losing two of the most surprising matches on the trot, has meant that this could be an unpredictable ride to the final.