India vs Australia - what is real?

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What does India's win in the Perth Test mean for the rest of the series? Based on what we saw in Bengaluru, you would have to say that there is a good precedent for winning a Test by a huge margin, and going on to dominate the rest of the series. But England did that to Pakistan around the same time, and it didn't go as well for them.

The way I like to look at these things is by analysing it piece by piece—how the win actually came about, and what factors are likely to remain consistent and which might not. I'm not looking at factors like Jasprit Bumrah or Travis Head's form, assuming that it will continue. My focus is on things that are a little more variable at the moment, or could have a huge impact if they go in either direction.

Let's call this India versus Australia—is this real?

We know which team is in form at the moment. But I expect Australia to be in better form for the rest of this series. India, not so much, only because they just won by 295 runs and the idea that they're going to be able to do that consistently seems a bit far-fetched to me. I assume there will be a natural regression here.

This doesn't mean that India still can't boss this series, or that Australia is going to fly back and somehow win 4-1. But when you're looking at form based on one Test match, you have to be realistic and say that it would be almost impossible for India to keep playing at that level. Australia were pretty poor for a few different reasons. I would expect them to get a bit better and India to slightly drop off from that level.

I've been thinking about team selection quite a lot. Rohit Sharma and Shubman Gill will be back in the India's playing eleven. They can pick R Ashwin or Ravindra Jadeja over Washington Sundar, depending upon the conditions and matchups. Mohammed Shami is playing in the Syed Mushtaq Ali Trophy. If he can eventually make it to Australia, there's absolutely no doubt that the Indian team can get even better.

I'm not sure you could make a realistic argument that the Australian team is going to get better. Josh Hazlewood has been ruled out of the Adelaide Test, with Scott Boland replacing him. He was clearly the standout pacer for Australia in the first Test.

Cameron Green will not play in this series, so they will miss his all-round skills. However, Mitchell Marsh did bowl a few overs in Perth. David Warner isn't going to come back, and even if he did, he wouldn't be in peak form.

So, they're stuck with the opening issue, no matter how they look at it. Even if Nathan McSweeney is not the right fit to open, they won't be able to bring in anyone with incredible skill or experience to take over that position. The same if they have to move on from their number three as well—it will just be another stopgap measure.

The Indian team can actually get better on paper, the Australian team has to be in better form.

The following test in Adelaide is a day-nighter, which is a huge advantage for Australia. They are really good at day-night Test matches—unless they are played at the Gabba, apparently.

They are very dominant in day-night Tests in Adelaide. This comes at a very good time for them, after having lost in Perth. It's their best chance of going one all.

However, there is an advantage for India as well. If they came into this test one nil down, it wouldn't have been ideal, especially with what happened last time. Now, this is much more like a free hit for them. If they lose, they're still one all. It is basically a three Test series from that point forward.

We also know that pink ball Tests are low-scoring compared to red ball matches. Volatility usually helps the touring team more. For instance, a spell from Jasprit Bumrah in a day-night Test could have a much bigger impact than in a red ball Test.

There must be an element of the Australian bowlers thinking that it’s difficult to consistently keep Virat Kohli quiet on these wickets. Coming into this series, they would have felt they had a good chance against him because he was not in form.

He batted really well in the second innings. But is this just one good innings? It wasn't under the most pressure in the game, although there was a bit of a mini-collapse at the other end. He got some of the best batting conditions in the game as well. At the moment, you'd much rather be in India's situation to know that he's at least done this once. Now, Australia will fixate on him a little more.

I don't think the Australian top three could be any worse in the rest of the series than in that first Test. But I'm also not sure that there is any cause for optimism.

There are a couple of reasons for that. We discussed Marnus Labuschagne's issues at length in this piece, and Nathan McSweeney did not handle Jasprit Bumrah very well. He just didn't look like an opener; probably because he isn't one. You're asking someone who's not an opener, to open in a series against one of the best bowlers of all time, in helpful conditions for bowling. There are not a lot of things in McSweeney's favour here.

Usman Khawaja has also been in a bit of a form dip, averaging 26 in 12 innings this year. It hasn't been as noticeable, because no one else in Australia is making runs and there are far bigger questions.

Jasprit Bumrah is currently bowling like he is a combination of Sydney Barnes and Glenn McGrath. They're getting everything out of him, which means Australia's top three has to go up against the world's best bowler. If Shami comes back, their new ball bowling would be even better.

Mohammed Siraj bowled beautifully in the last Test. He comes to a period where he understands what he's doing, runs through the crease and everything flows beautifully. But then, it stops.

For him, I would have preferred this to be a back to back Test. Unless he is tired or injured, he's much more likely to continue that flow. The gap between the two Tests was quite long, and he bowled only seven overs in the tour match in Canberra.

We have seen that he's not consistent as the second seamer. You might even find a situation where Bumrah ends up being overbowled. As the third pacer, Siraj is a wildcard and can do absolutely anything. If he has a bad Test or two, he can then be replaced by other seamers. Of course, he was very good in Perth. But I need to see it two Tests in a row to be confident about him.