Champions Trophy - Team Maps

Even without Bumrah, India are still favourites on our metrics.

If I’m being honest, I have spent almost as much time looking into the Champions Trophy teams as I have trying to make up a great XI of players who aren’t here. ODI squads are currently resembling mash units more than cricket teams. No one is fit.

Oh, and then it gets better because not only is everyone hurt, or retired, or just not here – we also have the fact that no one played ODI cricket last year, and even when they did, it was barely the best XI.

And yet, through all this carnage and detritus, we’ve still got to work out who is good and who isn’t. To do that we also use our team maps, which use ratios to work out where and how teams are good. So we had to go back to the start of 2022 onwards, to get some better data.

Group A: Group of ease

Group A has three teams that have won the tournament previously – Pakistan, India and New Zealand. Bangladesh also made the semi-final of the previous edition. India had a dominant run in the World Cup before losing the final. New Zealand also made the semi-final, where they lost to India. Pakistan and Bangladesh had disappointing campaigns.

The three games involving India will be played in Dubai. The tournament opener – Pakistan versus New Zealand – will be played in Karachi, and Rawalpindi will also host two matches.

India

India are very good at ODI cricket, and even without Jasprit Bumrah are still one of the top contenders. India have the best win percentage (68%) of all teams in this time period. They could just out-bat everyone. If they need seam, Mohammed Shami is back to international cricket after over a year and will be partnered with Arshdeep Singh, while Mohammed Siraj is not in the squad. They’ve only played nine ODIs after the 2023 World Cup, so we don’t know for sure if someone like Virat Kohli – who has struggled across formats since June 2024 – is still in form in 50-overs cricket.

India are 47% above par in the powerplay, and a huge reason for their success in that period has been skipper Rohit Sharma, who has been accessing high intent Rohit to destroy bowlers. Shubman Gill has also been incredibly consistent while batting at a good strike rate. We also saw their middle-order score plenty of runs from overs 11 to 40 in the last World Cup. At the death, they are up by 7%. If they bat till number eight, they could potentially maximise that phase even more.

Siraj was a major reason for their new ball dominance, while Bumrah conceded just 3.7 runs per over in that phase. So having neither of them is an issue. Arshdeep and Shami will have to fill the void in their absence. Their death bowling won’t be as good either, particularly without Bumrah. Shami averages 27 at nearly five runs an over in the powerplay, but less than 15 in the middle. It is hard to bowl him in the 11-40 over period though.

Seven of Arshdeep’s 14 ODI wickets have come with the new ball. He has a lot of death bowling experience in T20s, but can he also do it in ODIs? From what we’ve seen of Harshit Rana, he is better suited to bowl in the middle and death overs.

Kuldeep Yadav is one of the best spinners in the world. He will be well supported by Ravindra Jadeja and Axar Patel. In fact, they could even go for Washington Sundar if needed. Varun Chakravarthy has dominated batting lineups in List A cricket, but is new to ODIs. They can mix and match their spin options based on the oppositions and conditions.

For those pessimistic Indian fans, remember they still haven’t broken their 50-over hoodoo. Can India tick off that box without their best player?

New Zealand

New Zealand have been consistent performers in ICC tournaments for a long time. But recently, that has been on the back of new ball bowling. They are nowhere near as strong on that now. They have a win-loss ratio of 1.2 – the fourth-best of all sides in the tournament.

Rachin Ravindra has done well when the field is up, but Devon Conway hasn’t been as good in that period (he looks in the form that made him move to NZ in the first place). They’re expected to be the openers, with Will Young as the backup. They have an extremely reliable number three in Kane Williamson, although his scoring rate is a bit on the slower side. Williamson and Daryl Mitchell will be really important from overs 11 to 40. Even their opening options have done well in the middle when they get there. Glenn Phillips, Michael Bracewell and Mitchell Santner will have a key role to play at the end of the innings, and they could also include Mark Chapman in the XI. Remember, Chapman is a freak in Pakistan. If Rachin doesn’t make runs, they are in danger of batting too slowly.

Their best period with the ball has been at the start of the innings, where they are 6% above par. Trent Boult was a big part of that, but he’s not around now, and neither is Tim Southee. However, Matt Henry is very good with the new ball. Will O’Rourke has opened the bowling with Henry in the recent tri-series. Their other pace bowling options are Jacob Duffy and Nathan Smith. Everyone is injured or retired, so it’s not ideal.

Santner and Bracewell will operate in the middle overs, where they are exactly par. They also have the part-time spin of Phillips and Rachin. Lockie Ferguson also bowls in this phase of the innings, but he is a doubtful starter due to a hamstring injury. Rachin could also be a useful option from overs 11 to 40. Santner, Henry and Ferguson have bowled the most for them at the death (where they have a ratio of 0.99) in the specified time period.

The last time they won a white-ball ICC title was the 2000 Champions Trophy. They have an easy group, but if this is a high scoring league, I’m not sure they can score quickly enough.

Pakistan

Pakistan’s form after the World Cup has been good – they have won series against Australia, Zimbabwe and South Africa, and qualified for the tri-series final after chasing over 350 against South Africa. In fact, only India have a better win-loss ratio. But, I have seen a bit of their ODI form, and I am not completely convinced.

The absence of Saim Ayub – who had a stellar start to his ODI career – means that Babar Azam will open with Fakhar Zaman. Saud Shakeel and Mohammad Rizwan’s skills versus spin will be crucial in the middle overs. Salman Ali Agha also scores at a run a ball in the format, and he has also done well at the death. Two of Tayyab Tahir, Kamran Ghulam and Khushdil Shah will most likely bat at numbers six and seven. The way they bat, they really need to go boom at the end.

Shaheen Afridi and Naseem Shah will take the new ball. Peak versions of these two would be great, and change this team completely. Afridi has picked up 21 wickets in the last nine games at an economy of 5.72 – seven of those have come in the first ten overs. Since 2022, Haris Rauf has been their top wicket-taker from overs 11 to 40, and Afridi also averages less than 25 in this phase. Abrar Ahmed – their only frontline spinner – has also been a wicket-taker in the few matches he has played. Rauf, Naseem and Shaheen will do the task of bowling in the slog overs.

Agha has done his job as a part-timer. He will most likely share the role of the fifth bowler with Khushdil, though they could also use Faheem Ashraf if they need more pace. They also have a backup pacer in Mohammad Hasnain.

Pakistan usually win limited overs cricket by being the best team in the middle. Strike bowlers combined with steady scorers. It doesn’t look like they have that right now.

According to our true values, Pakistan have the second-best overall rating (1.15). However, some of it is inflated from them doing well against second-string teams in bilaterals. You could say that it applies for all teams, but it is important to remember that the co-hosts didn’t perform well in both the World Cup and Asia Cup in 2023.

If you are old enough to remember, this team is the defending champions. I say roll out the same team as 2017 and see how they go.

Bangladesh

Bangladesh have an overall rating of 1.01 on our metrics. But they’re below par in the middle overs with both bat and ball, essentially 60% of the match. Apart from death bowling – where they are 9% above the mean – they don’t really stand out in another phase of the game. They are by far the worst team in this competition.

Litton Das was pretty honest about the fact that he was dropped because he wasn’t performing. Tamim Iqbal has retired from international cricket. They are the two batters to have faced the most deliveries in the Powerplay since 2022. That is not ideal.

Tanzid Hasan and Soumya Sarkar opened the innings in the recent series against West Indies. Tanzid scores at nearly a run a ball in the powerplay, but doesn’t stay in for long. Sarkar averages 34 and strikes at less than 80. Najmul Shanto, who could be the number three, also takes his time to get going in this phase.

Shakib al Hasan has not been picked, but they do have the experience of Mushfiqur Rahim and Mahmudullah. Although they both average around 40 in the middle overs, Mahmudullah strikes in the mid-60s while Mushfiqur’s mark is also below 80. If you’ve been here before, you know that I rate Shanto highly. He has the best middle overs record – averaging 48 at a strike rate of 85 – of all batters in their squad. Mehidy Hasan Miraz has been batting at four recently as a player who can handle the spin well and give them more options in the team. Jaker Ali and his redonk technique can be tough to bowl to, he’s done a good job at number seven in his first five ODI innings.

They do have variety in their pace bowling options – the guile of Mustafizur Rahman, Taskin Ahmed, Nahid Rana’s raw pace and Tanzim Sakib. Mustafizur and Sakib have done well with the new ball, although the latter is just starting his career. Taskin has bowled more than them in this phase, but he averages almost 36. Mehidy also has a good bowling record in the first ten overs.

They could go for one of legspinner Rishad Hossain or left-arm fingerspinner Nasum Ahmed, depending upon the conditions and opposition. They will bowl alongside Mehidy in the middle overs. Among the pacers, Taskin has the best numbers from overs 11 to 40, and Rana could also be used as a quick bowler that can hit the wicket. Mustafizur and Mehidy are the best death bowlers in their squad, conceding less than six runs per over.

Their bowling is solid, and if they can make enough runs, then maybe they can do something. But they seem to be a 260 scoring team, in a 340 world.

Of all teams in the tournament, only England have a lower win-loss ratio. They finished eighth in the World Cup, which was enough to qualify for the Champions Trophy. After the World Cup, they lost three and won one series. But can they spring a surprise and make it to the semi-finals?