India make three ICC white-ball finals in a row

Notes on Kohli, Smith, Carey, Head, Iyer's trigger movements and Australia's math

Australia needed Head to go nuts, he did not. Australia needed Maxwell to stay in, he did not. Australia needed Dwarshuis to strike regularly, he did not. Australia needed Zampa to control the chase, he did not. India were not at their best, or even close. But they weren’t playing a great team. They just needed to ensure their bowlers didn’t lose the plot, only drop a socially acceptable amount of catches and knock the ball around.

It was the sort of chase where there were always going to be moments. Then they didn’t look comfortable, and it felt like a 4-7 wickets down kind of thing. But for India, this was a spar against an opponent that couldn’t knock them out, but work them over quite well. This was the perfect net before a final.

Australia actually outperformed considering they forfeited the opening position, and had two foetuses bowling spin for them. But India are better. And they probably would have been whether this game was played in Dubai, Lahore or Mars.

Virat’s chase

Can you imagine a better person to be chasing this total, against this attack on a ground of this size? Virat Kohli is basically built for this. And he’s the greatest finisher already, but this just takes it to crazy levels. I was genuinely shocked when he was out, though I thought it was a good time to look for boundaries.

But this man is so good at not having dots, and the ability to move the ball around. You really have to get him out through striking or give him a tricker chase. This was probably like a 6.8 chase out of ten.

He was quite legside dominant today. Australia couldn’t work out how to keep him on strike for long enough. It’s easy to say, especially with that bowling attack, but I think they just had to take more risks - on the field and in selections (they picked Cooper Connolly over Jake Fraser-McGurk). They still did well to push the game with their resources, but McGurk ups the randomness. When India were chasing, they had to make very little tricky decisions.

He batted quicker against spin today than he has in recent times. That was interesting when you factor in that he had to face two legspinners (a bowling type that has troubled him recently in the format) today. It makes sense that he went a bit defensively against pace - he scored 6 off 11 vs Ben Dwarshuis, so he played a part in that.

Anything under 30% in T20 cricket is elite. 33.7% in an ODI is just really low, especially in a chase where you know there are going to be little periods where you won’t score as fast as you want. I’m a bit surprised he didn’t get as many runs from twos. There were a couple of times where not just him, but other batters had a chance of two, and he just wasn’t calling them through. Perhaps he just didn’t want to risk a run out in that situation.

The key difference in how he goes in a run chase compared to batting first is that he hits boundaries more often in the former, and also faces fewer dots. He doesn’t get behind the required run rate as much as they do, unlike MS Dhoni or Michael Bevan - two more all-time great chasers.

Steve Smith top scores for Australia in a knockout (again), but gets a little stuck

It was a slightly different kind of innings from Steve Smith. He would suddenly force a ball for a boundary - it was clear he wasn’t batting the way he wanted to. There were forced shots rather than just letting the balls be in the right area. He got stuck several times and then had to play the big, risky shot.

He hit the ball down to long on quite often. He usually doesn’t score a lot of runs in the V. Today, he was more in the Iyer, Marsh, Klaasen and Mitchell region according to this graph.

Smith started off at a brisk pace, getting away a couple of boundaries in the powerplay. But after that, he was kept quiet by the Indian attack for a fair bit. He did catch up after facing 60 balls, scoring at about a run a ball till he got out.

It was a bit like Kane Williamson’s knock the other day - although they’re the reasons their teams scored runs, but going that slow puts pressure on the players other end and they have to take risks. Compare that to Kohli, Joe Root or Eoin Morgan, who keep ticking the score over, and that means the runs just keep flowing. That didn’t happen with Smith today.

He was quicker against pace than spin today, something that’s been a trend of sorts since the start of 2022. But he went slower against both today, though this was obviously a different kind of wicket.

I thought Varun Chakaravarthy would be Australia’s biggest problem, and he got the wicket of Travis Head. But he didn’t get another wicket until the end. Smith was able to put pressure on him and not really allowing him to settle and drop the ball where he wanted to. It was clever batting. He also went at a good clip against Jadeja and Hardik, but Shami, Axar and Kuldeep were able to keep a lid on his scoring rate. But he scored slower against everyone than he has in the past, apart from Hardik. Of course, this was not the sort of wicket we normally see, but he was too stuck for someone who stayed in as long as he did.

He doesn’t hit a lot of sixes against spin these days, but he does score fours at an above average rate. Usually, he doesn’t face that many dots and is brilliant at manipulating the field. Even when he hit boundaries today, he wasn’t as fluent.

When he’s up against pace, he’s about par in terms of facing dot balls, and slightly better at taking singles and scoring fours. But he doesn't hit too many sixes, or push for doubles and triples compared to the mean.

According to the Zulu stats, Smith’s nearest neighbours among Australian batters are Damien Martyn and Mark Waugh. So he’s not in the elite tier of Aussie ODI greats, but this is still a very good career.

Alex Carey’s recent ODI form is good

Alex Carey brought up his fourth half-century in six innings. Smith was the top-scorer, but Carey’s knock also helped Australia get into a pretty good position. It wasn’t the kind of wicket would traditionally suit him, so he deserves even more credit for that.

He was dropped for Josh Inglis after the first match of the 2023 World Cup, but he has been an important part of Australia’s batting in this tournament. They now have both those players in their XI.

Carey scored 35 runs on the legside, and 26 on the off. He played a forced shot over mid-off. He probably understood that he needed to up the scoring rate, considering how Smith was going. I think everyone knows how dependent he is on deep mid-wicket. It’s why he plays so many sweeps and reverse sweeps.

He’s usually a bit quicker against spin than he is against pace. But in this semi-final, he scored 19 off 16 against the two quicks, and also bettered his strike rate against the slower bowlers.

Carey is a plus batter against spin on every metric apart from sixes. He is better at rotating strike against the quicks, and doesn’t hit as many boundaries. But today, he got three fours off the 16 deliveries bowled by Hardik and Shami.

The effect of Head

Australia’s biggest player was always going to be Travis Head. Once he judged the pace of the wicket, he forced India to change their plans drastically. Thus Kuldeep Yadav was brought on to bowl in the powerplay. He has barely ever done that in his entire career, but Head had to be dismissed, and they brought on the left-arm wrist spinner to turn it away from him.

Head has not faced a lot of this kind of bowling, but he’s also not really shown much of a weakness against it. But really it is more about what Head is good against: left-arm finger spin. India had two bowlers of that type, who couldn't be risked with the fielding restrictions on. There also wasn't a third seamer in the XI, which made Kuldeep a good option, even if it was a surprising one.

Shreyas Iyer’s triggers

Shreyas Iyer was facing Cooper Connolly while auditioning to be in a TikTok dance group. His back foot was doing more work than usual. And it was clearly about upsetting the young all-rounder who is not yet a complete frontline bowler.

Shreyas is not just good at the hard skills when playing spin, but the soft ones as well. Such as, this is not a repeatable bowler, but this wicket is helping him. So he just messed with him a little. He is such a master of spin, but it was Zampa who got him today.

Iyer’s Zulu numbers are close to that of Sachin Tendulkar’s; averaging just under 50 at a run a ball. Of course, there is the small matter of Tendulkar having scored over 18000 runs. It just feels like he is an automatic 50 scorer in the format. He has consistently made runs in this tournament, only failing to get a substantial score in the first match.

Australia’s math

Australia needed a lot to go right with this game, like Steve Smith being bowled and the bails not coming off. They were down an opener, and all their seamers. Some things went their way. But they didn’t make enough runs, which is how you usually lose.

I think their first drop catch of Rohit should have been caught, though the Marnus one was difficult. Maxwell should have taken the catch to get Kohli, but Connolly probably put him off a bit. The difference between the two teams is that Australia just couldn’t afford to drop so many catches.

But for them, it was more about the kind of team they are. A normal Australian side could have defended this. The bowling line up they have now could not. The only strike bowlers they had was Dwarshuis and Zampa. Maxwell, Connolly and Ellis are defensive. Sangha is a T20 strike bowler, but it hasn’t really worked for him in List A cricket.

But this surface was going to give them two or three extra wickets, but more so if they could keep India looking for boundaries. But India didn’t have to do that, so even when it got tricky, one boundary would put them back in front. You can wait for that, especially against an inexperienced attack.

This is why Smith and Carey pushed so hard. They knew they needed more.