Who is the greatest active fast bowler in Test cricket?

This is one of the greatest eras ever for pace bowling. The 1950s was the last decade that had a lower average, and that was a period where teams struggled to make runs or take wickets. Now, we get plenty of fast runs and even quicker wickets. 

It’s not just this decade; it actually started earlier in 2018. The last seven years have been incredible for fast bowlers. Only in one year have the batters gone at more than 30 against them. There is not a single calendar year in the 21st century before 2018 where the average is below that. We went straight from a great batting era to an incredible bowling one, with no gap, within a generation.

There are many reasons. Teams now play for results in a way we have not seen before—only three Tests were drawn in 2024. Sometimes, even the rain isn’t enough to deny a result, like we saw in Kanpur. Runs are being scored quicker, which means batters are also getting out more frequently. It is chaos.

The Kookaburra ball has been juiced up, flat batting wickets are almost non-existent, the Dukes ball is used in two places, teams take risks for World Test Championship points, and the T20/Bazball-ification of the five-day game has changed everything. 

This means that Dale Steyn was on his own as a great in the previous generation. In the last decade, we’ve had late-career Jimmy Anderson and three more players. At the moment, Pat Cummins is fighting to finish as a top three seamer for Australia, Kagiso Rabada has the best strike rate in history and Jasprit Bumrah is the only bowler with over 200 wickets at an average of less than 20. Interestingly, all of them got their 200th wicket in their 44th match, though at different averages.

It’s probably unfair to compare anyone to Jasprit Bumrah at the moment, regardless of the format. He is not just the best bowler, but clearly the best cricketer. However, our question is not just on current form. 

As of now, which fast bowler has had the best Test career—Jasprit Bumrah, Kagiso Rabada or Pat Cummins?

In terms of balls per match, we see four New Zealand bowlers at the top, followed by Mohammad Abbas and Josh Hazlewood. Cummins is seventh, and he bowls more deliveries per Test than Bumrah and Rabada. Each of them bowl more than 30 overs per match for their teams, which is a significant number. Cummins is not exactly a stock bowler, but since becoming captain, he has leant more towards that role rather than being a strike option.

All three are more effective against right-handed batters than left-handers. But Bumrah outperforms Rabada and Cummins against the lefties, averaging nearly 20 against them, while the other two are close to 26. This is really the difference. They are all great against right-handers, but the other two aren't at the same level against the southpaws. Bumrah is almost identical. His greatness can't be slowed down by the side of the bat the player stands on.

There is a huge difference in the way they get their wickets. Since 2015, only Abbas has attacked the stumps more often than Bumrah to take wickets, and only Alzarri Joseph and Neil Wagner get fewer LBWs and bowled than Cummins. Rabada gets more 27% of his wickets in this manner, but that’s about 22% less than Bumrah's mark.

Most of the time, Cummins gets bowled dismissals off the top corner of off stump. It’s a completely different method from someone like Bumrah

Even compared to the other Indian bowlers, Bumrah’s mark is high. Bumrah bowls full and at the stumps. However, he does get a lot of keeper catches off his bowling. On the other hand, Cummins is shorter and much better at the tuck down the leg side at the batter’s armpit. It seems like he bowls a lot of deliberate short ball dismissals trying to get batters to mistime a pull or uppercut to a fielder in the deep. Rabada’s lengths are different, compared to the other two. Against the right-handers, Rabada is better shorter, and then fuller against the lefties.

Not only does Rabada have the best bowling strike rate overall, but also in each individual shot type. The gap is most noticeable in rotating, followed by defensive shots. However, there is not a lot to separate when it comes to attacking shots.

Bumrah’s record is also superior to Cummins and Rabada against the top six batters. But they also have a great record compared to the global average. Against numbers 7 to 11, Rabada and Bumrah average close to 13, while Cummins’ mark is a little more than 15.

When do they bowl at their best? 

In the first 20 overs, they’re all around the 22-23 mark—compared to 27 globally. But the star Indian pacer comfortably surpasses them in the next 20 overs with an average of 18. Rabada has the best numbers in overs 41 to 60, while Bumrah is again outstanding in the last 20 overs before the second new ball is available. Cummins also has a consistent record—he doesn’t average above 25 in either of the four 20-over blocks.

The best time to face Bumrah—only relatively, of course—is in the first innings of a game. Cummins has a similar average, while Rabada’s mark is a bit higher. All three of them have a similar average in innings three, while Bumrah and Rabada are close to 20 in the fourth innings and Cummins is slightly higher. But nobody comes close to Bumrah in the second innings of a match, where he averages almost 18 runs per dismissal.

Match factor compares their bowling averages with the rest of the pacers in the matches they played. Cummins is 32% better, Bumrah’s mark is at 34% and Rabada’s is at 16%. This is as elite as it gets in the longest format of the game. It also helps put better context than just looking at their overall averages. Bumrah outperforms the other pacers in his matches only marginally more than Cummins, but Rabada is a bit behind them. However, it must be said that South Africa often play on extreme pitches at home, which reduces the gap between Rabada and other seamers, making his record seem less impressive in comparison.

Compared to the other great bowlers with over 200 wickets, Bumrah ranks seventh, Cummins 12th, and Rabada 27th on match factor. It must be mentioned that many of the match factor values are very close to each other.

However, Rabada is 23% better than the other pacers in his games in terms of strike rate, slightly ahead of Bumrah and Cummins, who are both at 21%. Again, the gap doesn’t seem as big now compared to the overall career strike rate. Overall, Steyn is the best strike bowler of all time on this metric, with Fred Trueman, Allan Donald, Richard Hadlee and Waqar Younis in the top five.

Both Cummins and Bumrah are more effective in games where the others average more than 30. Bumrah is 43% ahead in these games, and Cummins is 35%. Rabada, however, is only 2% more effective in such conditions. This is probably what separates Bumrah and Cummins from Rabada. When there is nothing in the wicket, they’re still outstanding, while Rabada is above average. 

Cummins has also played in more high-scoring games than Bumrah, which is why there is not a huge difference in their match factors. 

But where you take your wickets also matters. 

Cummins outperforms the other pacers in his matches everywhere in the world apart from Sri Lanka (from a small sample size of two matches). But he has a very good record in Pakistan, Bangladesh and India, so he has performed well in Asia. At home, he has an extremely dominant record—44% better than others. Similarly, he is up at 41% in South Africa. In England and New Zealand, the corresponding values are 11% and 4%.

Bumrah has a match factor of less than one only in New Zealand, again from just two matches like Cummins. His record of 66% in Australia, 96% in India and 156% in the West Indies is exceptional. He is 7% better in England, and 1% in South Africa.

Both of them are extremely good across conditions.

Rabada, apart from his dominant home record of being 27% better than the other quicks, has a brilliant record in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and West Indies. He also averages 3% better in New Zealand. However, the other pacers outperform him in Australia, England, India and Pakistan.

How do their peaks compare with the greatest fast bowlers in our game?

Among the three, Cummins has the best record—a match factor of 1.36 over a 200 wicket streak. Bumrah isn't too far behind with 1.33, while Rabada is at 1.18. But there are quite a few bowlers that have better numbers on this metric. Glenn McGrath tops the list with 1.91, while Imran Khan, Shaun Pollock, Hadlee, Dale Steyn, Malcolm Marshall and James Anderson all have a match factor of greater than one and a half. Bumrah, Cummins and Rabada have benefited from bowler-friendly wickets, the wobbleball and the Kookaburra ball being juiced up. 

Over 40 innings streaks, Bumrah is at 1.62, Cummins 1.47 and Rabada 1.33. But again, we have seen superior numbers by bowlers in the past. Imran averaged less than half of the other seamers in his matches, while the likes of McGrath, Pollock have incredible numbers as well. 

10 Test rolling averages show us that around the 55th Test mark, Cummins’ average had crossed 35. So, he had a bad run of form. But now, he’s gone back to performing very well. Similarly, Rabada was around 33 at the 44th match. It never crossed 30 for Bumrah—was 29.52 at the 26th Test. Currently, it is at 20.98 for Cummins, 16.96 for Bumrah and 15.65 is Rabada’s mark.

Match factor is another way to look at this. Bumrah is currently at 1.74, Rabada 1.45, and Cummins 1.19. At his best, Bumrah had a match factor of 2.12 in his last ten Test matches, while it was 1.66 and 1.51 for Cummins and Rabada, respectively.

Longevity is another important factor in greatness. Cummins and Rabada have played more matches than Bumrah so far and they still have outstanding numbers. We are possibly looking at Bumrah when his brain and body have matched for this peak. Rabada has also played more years of Test cricket than both.

As cricketers, both Rabada and Cummins can outbat him (though he has scored more in an over). Cummins has also captained Australia in 33 Tests, compared to three for Bumrah. But Bumrah also gets a boost for his tactics with the ball. Rabada is perhaps the best fielder out of the three. 

Until their careers are over, it is hard to make a choice. But if you want a current ranking, it is Bumrah, Rabada and Cummins. But over the course of their entire careers, I would go Bumrah, Cummins and Rabada. 

It doesn’t really matter where you rank them though. The incredible thing is we can see all of them bowling right now. If you are in the right timezone, you can watch Cummins and Bumrah, and then cap off the day with Rabada. Three all-time greats, in one day, five in a row. 

Except when these three bowl, the games never go the distance, because they all take their wickets way too quick for that.